Remember that good decisions come from testing your thinking, not defending it.

Take your plausible ways forward from step 1 and apply this quick test. You can do it alone or with one trusted colleague.

If your idea crumples under these questions, that’s not a reason to avoid the questions. It’s a signal that you should work further on the the idea before reality stress-tests it for you.

1. What would have to be true for this to work?

List the key assumptions. Which ones are fragile? Which ones could you test quickly?

2. Who would see this differently, and why?

If you don’t know who disagrees, you may already be in an echo chamber.

3. Where is this most likely to fail?

If this goes wrong, what’s the most likely failure mode?

• Wrong problem?
• Wrong timing?
• Wrong people or resources?
• Underestimated complexity or hidden costs?

4. What’s the smallest experiment we could run?

Can you pilot with one team, one client group, one region? What would you learn from that?

5. What information are we ignoring because it’s inconvenient?

The thing you keep pushing to the back of your mind is often exactly what needs airtime.